Though the Saints’ weekly schedule hasn’t been released yet, every NFL team’s 2011 opponents were determined as soon as the 2010 regular season came to an end. Here is how the Saints’ 10 non-divisional games are assigned each season:
- All four teams from one of the other three divisions in the NFC, alternating every year.
- All four teams from one of the other four divisions in the AFC, alternating every year.
- Two NFC games based on the 2010 standings. Because the Saints finished in 2nd place in their division in 2010, they will play the corresponding 2nd place teams from the two NFC divisions that the Saints do not already have on their schedule.
On paper, New Orleans seems to have a much more favorable out-of-division schedule than their fellow NFC South peers. Although it is far too early to make any predictions with absolute confidence, the Saints’ schedule at present appears to have them well positioned to reclaim their place at the top of the division. Here is a breakdown of the team’s 2011 non-divisional opponents.
NFC Division Match-up – NFC North
Schedule – vs. Bears, vs. Lions, @ Vikings, @ Green Bay
Unfortunately, the Saints do not get to play the NFC West every year (although maybe that’s a good thing, considering the team suffered two embarrassing losses in week 5 at Arizona and in the playoffs loss at Seattle). Next season, they face the formidable NFC North, the division that lays claim to both NFC championship game participants. The only game on the Saints’ 2011 schedule that truly scares me comes from this division, as the Saints have to make a trip to Green Bay. The Saints’ other home opponent would be a tough matchup in Chicago, especially if the game came late in the season with a high chance of heavy snow; however, the Saints should be able to handle da Bears in da Dome. As for the team’s two road games – Minnesota won’t be able to make any noise this season unless they can land a new franchise QB, and though the Lions are improving, they are still at least a year away from seriously contending.
Projected record: 3-1
Falcons/Bucs - Atlanta travels to Chicago and Detroit, while the Bucs have road games in Green Bay and Minnesota. Realistically, I see the Falcons finishing 3-1 against this division as well, while the Bucs could finish anywhere from a more likely 2-2 to a less likely 3-1.
AFC Division Match-up – AFC South
Schedule – vs. Texans, vs. Colts, @ Titans, @ Jaguars
This schedule simply could not have gone better for the Saints. New Orleans gets the division’s two most talented teams in the Dome, and travel to two teams trending downward. You can be sure that the Super Bowl XLIV rematch in New Orleans between the Saints and Colts will be nationally televised, and the primetime invincibility theory concerning Peyton Manning has been put to rest after this past season. The Texans have lots of young talent, but there is simply no way Houston’s pass defense can improve enough in one offseason to contain Drew Brees. The two road trips to Jacksonville and Tennessee seem like a cakewalk when compared to the avoided trips to Houston or Indy (although that’s what we all thought about Cleveland and Arizona this season), as both teams seem to have too many holes on both sides of the football to hang with New Orleans. The one thing that keeps me from predicting a clean sweep of this division is the pass-catching ability that these opponents employ out of the backfield (except for the Colts, but when you have Manning running the show, you can beat anyone). The Saints have had problems slowing down two-dimensional RBs, and this division has plenty of those between Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, and Maurice Jones-Drew. I’m going to predict that the loss comes against the Texans in a shoot-out, with a combined score somewhere around 60 points.
Projected record: 3-1
Falcons/Bucs - Atlanta gets hit with a buzzsaw, having to travel to both Houston AND Indianapolis, neither of which will be easy. Though their two home games should be close to guaranteed wins, there is a chance that the Falcons may not be favored in either of these two road games. The Bucs have the same home/away slate as the Saints. I think the Falcons and Bucs both finish with a 3-1 record against this division, though both could easily go 2-2 thanks to a tough road schedule for Atlanta and a young Bucs team which could be more prone to a slip-up.
Final Two Games
Schedule – vs. Giants, @ Rams
The Saints catch another break with these two games. If the schedule had been inversed, the most likely outcome would be a 1-1 finish; however, because New Orleans gets a road game in a dome against an inferior team while hosting the tougher opponent, they should be able to win both of these games. New York went 0-3 on the road against teams over .500 in 2010, getting outscored by an average of over 20 points per game; I expect more of the same in 2011 from a team that hasn’t shown much resiliency since their Super Bowl XLII victory three years ago.
Projected record: 2-0
Falcons/Bucs - Atlanta’s final two games consist of a home matchup against the Eagles and a trip to Seattle. Though in most cases I would prefer to play the tougher team at home, this scenario is much different. As Saints fans learned the hard way, Seattle’s Qwest Field is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play; the place registered a seismic rating on Marshawn Lynch’s touchdown run. If that weren’t enough, the Falcons’ home game will be Michael Vick’s homecoming in the city where his NFL career first exploded; you can be sure he is going to be at the top of his game for that one. I see Atlanta splitting those two games. Tampa Bay hosts the Cowboys and travels to the 49ers. I don’t think anyone expects either of those two teams to play as poorly as last season, meaning the Bucs will have their hands full. They should split those two games, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked at any of the four possible outcomes.
Expected Non-Divisional Records
New Orleans: 8-2
Atlanta: 7-3
Tampa Bay: 6-4
Carolina: 3-7
Though I don’t expect the NFC South to have quite the same success at the top that it had in 2010, the division should still produce three teams records at .500 or better. To sum things up regarding the Saints, there are two main reasons that they should expect to come out of their non-divisional schedule ahead of their fellow NFC South opponents. First, New Orleans will benefit from playing against their tougher opponents at home, while traveling to face the less talented teams. The Saints’ game against the Packers also happens to be their only road game outside of the NFC South against a team with a winning record in 2010. Second, the only possible game in which New Orleans would have to deal with inclement, brutally cold weather is in Green Bay. While I do expect the Saints to lose to the Packers, they should be favored in each of their other nine non-divisional games. As a result, the New Orleans Saints unquestionably have the scheduling edge over the rival Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
17 Responses to “Breaking Down the New Orleans Saints’ 2011 Schedule”
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I take issue with your referring to the game against the Titans at LP Field as a “cakewalk.” The last time I watched the Saints play the Titans, Brees threw 4 picks (3 to Mr. Monday Night, Keith Bullock). This is me in denial about the sad, sorry state of affairs of my team. Mike Munchak?? Really??? I think I’m going to be sick
Brees will not throw 4 picks again. Unless the Titans get a QB I do not see them putting up enough offense. CJ is great, but can be contained and if the Saints start off quick (say 14-0 lead), it’s over. I do not think any game is a cake walk especially what happened last year at the Arizona, Clevelane & Seattle game (both) so the Saints will need to prepare. Saints 31, Titans 17.
I, too, don’t like the term “cakewalk” but for entirely different reasons. As I recall, many of us Saints fans considered the games against Arizona and Cleveland “cakewalks” this past season, not to mention the wild-card game in Seattle. These three games were proof that games aren’t played “on paper.” It is my sincere hope that the Saints take every game this coming season as if they are playing in the Super Bowl. (Please, God, let there be a complete season–of sixteen games, not eighteen.)
There are rumors that the Saints might be picked to play Green Bay in the season opener. While I don’t exactly need that to happen, getting them in September or early October would be nice.
I guess you have already forgotten how the Falcons beat down the Seahawks at Quest field at the end of last season. A good team knows to prepare for a weaker team that they SHOULD beat easily. There is nothing like having the lead the entire game to rid yourself of those pesky seismic activities.
As far as Indy and Houston go, let me know when Indy can stop the run (Michale Turner) and when Houston can stop the pass (Roddy White and T-Gonzo). I think the Falcons deserve a little better rating than what you gave them, but this is a Saints page after all.
Sure it’s a Saints page so go to a Falcon page. I always pick the Saints to split the series with the Falcons each year because I think the Falcons can beat the Saints, but last year was a fluke where hartley caused the loss. Should have been 2-0 easy.
The “New Orleans Saints unquestionably have the scheduling edge over the rival Atlanta Falcons”.
That may be so, but since the Falcons are better I’m not too bothered.
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=301227001
Yeah. Better…
If it wasnt for a missed field goal it would be 2-0 Saints.
Dude, Falcons are NOT better than the Saints. Take a poll and you will see that it will be 70%, 30% Saints. Falcons are close, but not better.
Falcons are a better team? Getting blown out at home in the playoffs proves the Falcons 13-3 record masked their gaping holes. The Falcons beat Green Bay, the Ravens, and the Saints in the regular season, but in reality those three teams beat THEMSELVES when they lost to the Falcons (Green Bay – Rodgers fumbles going over the goal line, Ravens – 4 turnovers, Saints – missed 29 yard FG in OT). When GB and the Saints got a second chance they beat them, soundly (For the Saints game the score didn’t show it, but look at the stats, 360 yds- 157 yds, it really wasn’t much of a game). So NO the Falcons aren’t a better team, in fact, I think the Falcons take a signifcant step back this year as Turner & Gonzoles continue to go down hill, and Matty Melt has shown he cannot carry a team, much less step up when it REALLY counts. 12-4 for the Saints, 9-7 for the Falcons. Tampa Bay will go 10-6 and get the other playoff spot from the division.
Seems to me the Saints lose to the worst team to make the playoffs in the modern era and yet that doesn’t get a mention in your diatribe. And it should be noted I am not a Falcons fan just seemed like you forgot some things in your haste to dis them.
lol of course the falcons go 7-3, i say 9-1 with the only loss coming to the colts in indianapolis
I am a Saints fan and do not think they will finish 9-1 here. I think 8-2 is more realistic as I see either the Bears, Giants, or Indy games being close, but I think the Saints pull out the win except for the Colts. I am not worried about the other NFC South teams because this is a Saints forum so Falcons fans stay away. The Saints will split the series with the Falcons and finish 13-3 for the year. This all depends on how FA goes, but if a CBA is reached and the Saints resign or replace players appropriately I see 13-3 being pretty realistic. Could be #1 seed so GO SAINTS!!
Saints have had there one and done….Falcons will win the South again. I don’t care if this is a Saints page or not…
How many Saints offensive linemen are potential FA? Six? And Sharper too? How we gonna keep ‘em all? I gotta tell you, I’m not as optimistic as the rest of you.
Why would the Saints want to keep Sharper? He is old and Malcom Jenkins has done a great job replacing him. The Saints will let Sharper, Pierre Thomas, and Jeremy Shockey all go and have enough money to re-sign the lineman that they need. Mickey Loomis has done a GREAT job and while Sharper and Shockey are fan favorites he is not going to keep them with Jenkins and Graham ready to step up and play, for much less as well.
Who ever wrote this is completely stupid, the NFC south is the best division in football and next year will prove that. The division had 3 teams that had at least 10 wins, and next year Jerry Richardson is gonna open up his wallet and go get some good vets in free agency. The fact that we only have 73 million towards the cap is a look into how the Panthers are thinking……Wait until the labor agreement is done, sign your key free agents, and go get some vets to bolster the team. New Orleans goes 7-9 next season. Carolina 10-6, playoffs?? Im not gonna commit to that just yet.
Something is obviously wrong with you…. If you think the Panthers will ever go over .500 in the next 3 seasons you obviously don’t watch football.. Pick a new team because they are done for a very long time.